PLATINUM TODAY – Support found ahead of $900/oz | Atlantic Precious Metal Refining

PLATINUM TODAY – Support found ahead of $900/oz

Posted December 2, 2016

Short Term:
Medium Term:
Long Term:

Resistances:
R1	921 Recent DTL
R2	926 Mid-October lows
R3	940 20 DMA
R4	950 40 DMA
R5	1015 200 DMA
R6	1021 Nov 9 peak
R7	1038 August peak
R8	1090 High (May)
R9	1059 UTL Nov/Jun low
R10	1176-92 Late 2014 low/Apr-May high
R11	1163 DTL (Feb ’13/Jul ’14 highs)

Support:
S1	1152 UTL Dec 3/Apr 5 low
S2	1076 50% retracement Jun>Aug rally
S3	1045 UTL Nov 2015/Jun lows
S4	1029 100 DMA
S5	1015 200 DMA
S6	950 40 DMA
S7	957 61.8% retracement Jan>Aug rally
S8	951 50% Fibo Jan-May
S9	940 20 DMA
S10	945-947 Jul/Aug 2015 lows
S11	929 Support/resistance jul/aug 2015 Feb-Apr 2016
S12	910-880 Support/resistance Oct 2015-Feb 2016
S13	811 Low so far

Stochastics:Bearish

Legend:

Fibo = Fibonacci retracement level
BB = Bollinger band
RL = Resistance line
SL = Support line
UTL = Up trend line
H&S = Head-and-shoulder pattern

Technical Comment

Analysis

Platinum is attempting to form a base around $900 per oz after support around the mid-October low of $926 failed.
Dip-buying interest continues to provide modest support, as implied by longer lower shadows on the daily candlestick chart. The stochastics remain bearish, though, amid persistent offers.
Stronger support is expected at $880-900 per oz from the October 2015 lows.
Platinum has formed a DTL, which stands at $921 and is providing immediate resistance.
Further resistance is seen from the 20 and 40 DMAs at $940 and $950 per oz respectively.

Macro factors

Platinum continues to grapple with fallout from the Volkswagen emissions scandal last year – the mayors of Paris, Mexico City, Madrid and Athens have pledged to ban all diesel vehicles by the middle of the next decade.

ETF holdings remain stable for now and, unlike palladium, have not suffered from stale long liquidation. Holdings total 2.35 million oz compared with 2.22 million oz at the end of September after buying interest returned late in October. But the fact they have fallen around 64,000 oz in the year to date does little to signal a bullish stance among investors.

The global platinum market will record a 520,000-oz deficit in 2016, according to the latest Platinum Investment Council forecast – deeper than the 455,000-oz deficit it forecast in May. Total supply is now seen falling 2% to 7.73 million oz – the WPIC lowered its expectations for recycling levels due to subdued autocatalyst and jewellery scrap sales. It also sees demand edging up to 8.25 million oz – firmer jewellery and investment demand will offset slower demand from industrial applications, owing to slower usage from the petrochemical sector. Demand for autocatalysts is seen slowing marginally – falling market share for diesel vehicles in Europe will negate overall growth in vehicle sales globally.

The Platinum Investment Council will publish its third-quarter statistics and latest 2017 forecasts tomorrow.

Conclusion

Platinum is attempting to stabilise – we feel downside pressure may be limited, with prices having returned to an area of stronger price support between $900 to $880 per oz. But whether platinum has the ability to rebound is likely to depend on wider market drivers, with US payrolls data and elections in Europe this weekend likely to be key directional drivers.

All trades or trading strategies mentioned in the report are hypothetical, for illustration only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

The post PLATINUM TODAY – Support found ahead of $900/oz appeared first on The Bullion Desk.