- China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI – Actual 50.1, Expected 50.1, Previous 50.0
Precious metals were mixed yesterday with gold prices unchanged at $1,322, silver was off 0.5 percent, platinum was off 0.1 percent, but palladium remained firm, rising 0.8 percent to $715. Metals were diverse yesterday with nickel prices slipping 2.7 percent to $10,410, while lead continued its rally with a three percent rise to $2,065, zinc was up 0.9 percent, aluminium was up 0.5 percent, with tin 0.4 percent higher and copper was off 0.1 percent at $4,825.
This morning, the base metals remain mixed, zinc and aluminium are off 0.4 percent, lead and copper are off 0.1 percent with copper at $4,821, nickel is up 0.3 percent at $10,445 and tin is up 0.2 percent at $20,030 – setting a fresh high for the year.
In Shanghai most of the metals are weaker this morning, the exception is lead that is up 1.9 percent and tin that is up slightly, but the rest are down between 0.1 percent for zinc and 1.9 percent for nickel, while copper is down 0.4 percent at Rmb 37,610. Spot copper in Changjiang is off 0.5 percent at Rmb 37,800-37,920, the spread has widened to an equivalent of $46 per tonne back and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 7.80. The SHFE will be closed next week and will reopen on Monday October 10.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices in Dalian dropped three percent, which may well be profit-taking ahead of the week long holiday, steel rebar is off 2.3 percent, while gold and silver prices are off 0.1 percent.
Equities – the Euro Stoxx 50 closed little changed yesterday, but the Dow ended the day down 1.1 percent as some good data increased the likelihood of the Fed raising rates this year. Asia this morning is generally weaker, the Nikkei is down 1.4 percent, the Hang Seng is off 1.3 percent, the ASX 200 is down 0.4 percent, the Kospi is off one percent while the CSI 300 is up 0.4 percent. Profit-taking for quarter-end seems to be one of the dampeners, along with some weak Japanese data and concerns about Deutsche Bank.
In FX, the dollar index is flat at 95.53, as are the euro at 1.1218, sterling at 1.2973, the yen at 101.15, while the aussie is slightly weaker at 0.7631. The yuan is last at 6.6697, the rupiah is weakening after recent strength and other emerging market currencies are on a back footing, although the rouble is looking firmer at 63.04.
The economic diary is busy today, Japan’s industrial production climbed 1.5 percent, which was better than expected, but there was a host of other data out that looked weak – see table below. China’s Caixin PMI came out slightly better than expected, it was originally scheduled to come out tomorrow – the official PMI data is still scheduled to come out tomorrow. Data out later includes: German retail sales, UK house prices, French CPI and consumer spending, Italian unemployment rate, UK GDP, current account, EU and Italian CPI, EU unemployment rate, with US data including personal spending, income and PCE prices, Chicago PMI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
Lead and tin continue to push higher with lead seeming to be playing catch-up, copper, aluminium and zinc are consolidating recent gains and are pausing ahead of former resistance levels, while nickel has run into some selling ahead of its August peak. With China closed next week trading is likely to quieten down, although thinner trading conditions could increase price volatility. China’s official PMI, out tomorrow, may well set the next direction, we continue to favour the upside.
Gold prices got some lift on the stronger oil prices yesterday, but not much, prices are for the most part moving sideways and while they do so the risk of stale long liquidation remains. Silver is following gold’s lead, albeit in a more volatile manner, platinum is staying in low ground, while palladium is bucking the trend with prices looking set to challenge the July highs that were at $747.50, with the highest close then at $725.
| Overnight Performance | ||||
| BST | 06:01 | +/- | +/- % | Lots |
| Cu | 4821 | -4 | -0.1% | 975 |
| Al | 1661.5 | -7 | -0.4% | 875 |
| Ni | 10445 | 35 | 0.3% | 832 |
| Zn | 2345.5 | -9.5 | -0.4% | 812 |
| Pb | 2062 | -3 | -0.1% | 339 |
| Sn | 20030 | 30 | 0.2% | 9 |
| Average | -0.1% | 3,842 | ||
| Gold | 1323.53 | 1.53 | 0.1% | |
| Silver | 19.105 | -0.005 | 0.0% | |
| Platinum | 1029.2 | 4.2 | 0.4% | |
| Palladium | 718 | 3 | 0.4% | |
| Average PM | 0.2% | |||
| SHFE Prices 06:01 BST | RMB | Change | % Change |
| Cu | 37610 | -140 | -0.4% |
| AL | 12460 | -100 | -0.8% |
| Zn | 18170 | -10 | -0.1% |
| Pb | 15245 | 285 | 1.9% |
| Ni | 81070 | -1560 | -1.9% |
| Sn | 128570 | 40 | 0.0% |
| Average change (base metals) | 0 | -0.2% | |
| Rebar | 2254 | -52 | -2.3% |
| Au | 284.9 | -0.3 | -0.1% |
| Ag | 4269 | -3 | -0.1% |
| Economic Agenda | |||||
| BST | Country | Data | Actual | Expected | Previous |
| 12:01am | UK | GfK Consumer Confidence | -1 | -5 | -7 |
| 12:30am | Japan | Household Spending y/y | -4.6% | -2.1% | -0.5% |
| 12:30am | Japan | Tokyo Core CPI y/y | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| 12:30am | Japan | National Core CPI y/y | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.5% |
| 12:30am | Japan | Unemployment Rate | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| 12:50am | Japan | BOJ Summary of Opinions | |||
| 12:50am | Japan | Prelim Industrial Production m/m | 1.5% | 0.5% | -0.4% |
| 1:00am | Japan | BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks | |||
| 2:45am | China | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50 |
| 6:00am | Japan | BOJ Core CPI y/y | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| 6:00am | Japan | Housing Starts y/y | 2.5% | 7.3% | 8.9% |
| 7:00am | Germany | German Retail Sales m/m | -0.2% | 1.7% | |
| 7:00am | UK | Nationwide HPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 7:45am | France | French Consumer Spending m/m | 0.4% | -0.2% | |
| 7:45am | France | French Prelim CPI m/m | -0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9:00am | Italy | Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate | 11.4% | 11.4% | |
| 9:30am | UK | Current Account | -30.5B | -32.6B | |
| 9:30am | UK | Final GDP q/q | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 9:30am | UK | Index of Services 3m/3m | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 9:30am | UK | Revised Business Investment q/q | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 10:00am | EU | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 10:00am | EU | Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 0.9% | 0.8% | |
| 10:00am | Italy | Italian Prelim CPI m/m | -0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 10:00am | EU | Unemployment Rate | 10.0% | 10.1% | |
| 1:30pm | US | Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 1:30pm | US | Personal Spending m/m | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 1:30pm | US | Personal Income m/m | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 2:45pm | US | Chicago PMI | 52.1 | 51.5 | |
| 3:00pm | US | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | 90.1 | 89.8 | |
| 3:00pm | US | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | 2.3% | ||
The post Gold prices consolidate ahead of a day of data appeared first on The Bullion Desk.
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Source: Bullion Desk News
